The Earth will undergo a reversal of its geographic poles
Rene Arrieta Pérez
José Vicente Arias Rincón
In this research, we intend to call the attention of the scientific community on a phenomenon that threatens life on the planet, which has not been among the different possibilities that have been analyzed, and this is the inclination of the planet Earth’s axis, which happens by the incidence of the melting of glaciers and the Poles, because the Earth is a balance in balance, and as it gradually tilts, the axis will reach a critical point where the globe swings. After looking at the different possibilities that represent risk to life on the planet, by a series of inferences about the phenomenon of thaw, that is steadily rising, which would not only increase the sea level, but also would lead to the phenomenon that we pointed out. In effect, this possibility acquires a high representativeness.
Melting glaciers, poles, catastrophic imbalance of the earth's axis, end of the human race.
Disappearing as mankind has always been a clear and present danger. The danger has been a real possibility. These different forms of such possibilities we relate to and elucidate, and that is what our study is about, which we address through analysis, calculations, forecasts and demonstration of results. It is not an unfounded hypothesis. It is one of the most terrible possibilities, and the evidence of the facts confirms it for us. Never before has anyone reached this dramatic conclusion of the imminent danger of the disappearance of life off the face of the earth.
As researchers, we fear that we have had to come up with the gloomiest hypothesis within the field of research in the history of man, by the very nature of the question, Is human life and the life of the other species of the animal and plant kingdoms of the planet at risk?
And the answer, which poses the thesis of this article, is yes! The permanence of life on the planet is certainly at that imminent risk.
Fears of the end of time and the possibility of disappearing
Since the dawn of civilization, there has been an inherent restlessness in the human beings, which constitute a range of manifestations of fears and terrors for the arrival, or the coming of the end of times. Bravo (1999) expresses: "Modern anthropology and the theory of culture has allowed us to distinguish among different societies with different forms of terror before the end." (p. 19). Indeed, all of them manifested in his vision of world, in religious beliefs and ideologies, as well as in myths, ignorance and unfounded superstitions. Besides, there are the ideas associated with stories about the end of the century, millenarianism, apocalypticism, etc., which are already substratum of the collective mentality and unconscious (San Martín, 2016)
The dynamics of societies in their different aspects: socio-economic, political, administrative, ecological and environmental, among others, denounce imbalances and
abnormalities that it is already impossible to think of salvaging solutions and models of utopian societies that can reverse the disassociation of human beings for not feeling safe in the planet, as Bravo (1999) believes and affirms:
"The utopia that proposes the salvation of mankind by mankind, in an order established by reason, constitutes a symbolic refutation of mankind’s death." (p. 21).
The fear of disappearing has always been incubating in man, according to Martinez (2016), and this fear becomes more intense in the fin-de-siècle (end of century) moments. Similarly, the apocalyptic biblical beliefs are always present and boiling over in the collective unconscious. The eschatological theme, or vision, such as the imminent end of the world, and humankind, has been imprinted in our minds since the dawn of time and it will continue to grow in our minds, and, so, it is also a reason for soteriology (salvation), which of course, will bring peace of being to all of us; it is not in vain that such fears exist at this time, and the signs and elements of the ecological disaster support it.
Consequently, the film industry, keeping in mind the idea of the end of the century, exploits the topic in its multi-millionaire productions that recreate scenes of the hecatombs that would disappear the world’s different societies as we know them.
The destruction of biological, water, environmental systems, etc., which make life possible on Earth, have been and still are unrestrained, and with only some measures that are insufficient to stop it. We can't expect a planet with wild aggressions on it, endure for a long time.
According to scientists, there are several threats that could destroy humanity, among
which is included artificial intelligence. It is expressed by experts consulted by the journalist Kate Ravolious, from The Guardian (Fluvium, n.d.).
The law of cause and effect in anthropogenic activities leads to the breaking of the balance of the systems that support life on the planet
Indeed, the different anthropic activities (or human activities), such as the destruction of ecosystems, from extractive mining activity, the destruction of forests for population and construction, the weight and pressure of mega-cities, the use and implementation of the soil for livestock that, in turn, generate methane that destroys the ozone layer, the exploitation of underground water resources, the exploitation of oil, which leaves the earth's crust without the buffering component. All these kinds of actions, which man has been doing for centuries and continues to do in a day by day basis, have been creating imbalances that at some point have reached a critical point, and it is now, in the imminence of that event, when it is up to us to face the consequences, it appears to be an irreversible fact.
Scientists talk about the life on earth as a set of infinite circumstances that combine in a miraculous balance, which form a living being with physical-chemical, biological and atmospheric dynamic relationships (Planet Doc., 2016).
Balance that has been broken by the anthropic activity: destructive pressure, which is in a population of 7.7 billion people on the planet today (UN, 2020).
In the Essay on the Principle of Population, a study based on the theory of population,
Malthus (1916), foresaw that at some point, nature would not admit a single person more in this already busy world and considers man to be prey to the adverse conditions of society. This premonitory panorama of Malthus is seen today; however, Malthus didn’t ever imagine how harmful life on the planet would be by increasing the population on the planet.
Of course, every effect has a cause that explains the phenomenon. Of causes and effects is full in the history of man, and we must say it: man activates that law and does not do so in a rational manner, but, on the contrary, it is an accumulation of actions and excesses that now put in jeopardy his survival on earth. What man has generated through his history derives unfailingly into the serious consequences that the greenhouse effect, natural disasters such as hurricanes, tsunamis, earthquakes, the melting of glaciers, the destruction of the ozone layer, and, in general, the increasing instability of the planet that is reflected in different orders, and it is heading for a definitive collapse.
The different possibilities of a catastrophe disappearing life on the planet and the percentage of probability of it occurring.
We contemplate the various possibilities of events that could wipe out life on earth, and we assign a proportion percentage to it by virtue of the potential of occurring each one of them:
(1) Catastrophe by a solar storm, by the explosion of a supernova that affects us, or the fall into a black hole; (2) catastrophe by the impact of an asteroid or comet; (3) global pandemic disaster; (4) catastrophe due to a nuclear war, (5) super volcano eruption disaster, and (6) Catastrophe due to the unbalanced terrestrial axis.
1. Catastrophic Solar storm disaster, supernova explosion affecting us, or the fall into an Event Horizon of a black hole.
We give a 0.7% chance that life will disappear from the face of the earth, and in fact, the planet itself, by the fatality of being the target of a solar storm; the planet is exposed to being hit by a supernova explosion, or it may fall into an Event Horizon and into a black hole, among many other phenomena, to which we grant as a possibility that modest percentage.
2. Asteroid/comet impact disaster
Even though there's a possibility of an asteroid hitting the Earth, the truth is that this fact is very remote. Therefore, we assign a 2.0% probability to that occurrence. In the cosmos there are a hidden harmony and order that they even manifest themselves in apparent chaos. We consider, by the manifestation of the cosmic laws, that this possibility will become apparent and with great certainty when this task is to be accomplished by the end of a corresponding cycle, which in fact, it's very far away in time, in millions of years.
3. Global pandemic disaster
We give the global pandemic catastrophe a 2.0% chance, because forecasts and measures taken by health agencies, in addition to the use of technology and the advancement of science allows for control over the subject.
4. Nuclear war Catastrophe
Notwithstanding human folly, we concede a 2.3% probability of disappearing due to effect of a nuclear hecatomb. We reduce this possibility to that percentage by an act of faith in the sanity of the leaders of the nuclear powers in betting on survival and not by self-annihilation.
5. Super volcano eruption disaster
Although most super volcanoes are dormant, they pose a latent danger. We're assigning this 3.0% probability. Mankind has already felt their roaring and rumblings before, volcanoes have made disappear entire populations, and have changed the landscape and the climate.
6. Cataclysm by the breaking of the balance of the earth's axis tilt changes
The breaking of the balance of the earth's axis has a 90% probability in relation to others factors. This large percentage is granted by virtue of the great anthropic activity that began in the Industrial Age humans have been exercising in detriment of the balance and normal stability of The Earth, and because from a cause and effect analysis, we found that the loss of the ice mass from the North Pole cap, is already manifesting itself with large evidence, and will produce an as yet unforeseen hecatomb, which will end all forms of life on the planet.
Review and analysis of the various possibilities of life-threatening events on earth
After a literature review, in relation to the different factors that suppose a risk for the continuity of life on the planet, we have evaluated, based on the criteria of the experts on the subject, the possibilities that we propose here. And of course, we support and compare it to other possibilities (the break in the balance of the globe’s axis tilt, to which we have also given the higher percentage of probability).
Chart No. 1.
Risk percentages in the probability of disappearing from the face of the earth
Source: Own charting
Risk of catastrophe by a solar storm, explosion of a supernova that will affects us, or the fall into an event horizon and into a black hole
The Earth is naturally protected from solar storms by its geomagnetic shield, and, for now, also from the danger that these may represent for human life. The damages, more than anything else, can be done to the electrical power systems; satellite networks, which are vital for air navigation and the operation of communication technologies globally, as well as in electronics.
With the solar wind, there is a solar mass ejection that reaches our atmosphere, usually protons and helium nuclei. These constantly affect the Earth, and the planet's electromagnetic shield deflects them to the poles causing the Northern Lights. Impacts from solar storms don't have enough intensity to cause catastrophic damage (Eiras, 2018).
Despite the common belief of researchers, there are certain some grave or serious risks, in massive solar storms. Researchers like Raymond Muscheler, in recent studies, has shown that indirect observations in the nature's archives, such as ice cores and rings of annual tree growth in old trees, there were old records and evidence of such events, and some massive storms took place in the years 775 and 994 of our era. The expert notes that massive solar storms are rare phenomena, but they are recurring natural events, and that research suggest that the risks are currently underestimated (Europa Press, 2019).
If a solar storm like the one in 1859 were to happen today, the Carrington Storm, named after the astronomer Richard Carrington, who witnessed it, and the first man to understand the relationship between solar storms and geomantic disturbances in the Earth, the entire planet would be paralyzed by the disruption of power grids, communications, GPS and other disturbances (Lovett, 2011).
Scientists have also ruled out the possibility of a supernova damaging the Earth because of the distance in which these giants are when they collapse. In order to cause any effect on the planet Earth, these Supernovas must be at less than 50 light years away (Europa Press, 2011).
Similarly, the issue of black holes and their danger to the planet is a little discarded by the experts: astrophysicists and astronomers, for the reason that they are too distant in the cosmos from the location of the planet. Although it's a possible eventuality, with a slim chance, at least, for now.
Rather, when that possibility is discussed, the scenario of the creation of a black hole in a hadron collider, and since these already exist and have been clashes of atoms in them, without having formed such a hole, scientists have dismissed that possibility.
Indeed, Harvard University physics professor and researcher Richard Wilson, believes that the chance of a black hole of hadrons in a collider is very low to engulf the Earth in the next 70 years (Fluvium, n.d.).
On the other hand, in the universe, black holes are small, distant and dark, which does not allow them to be observed at first sight (Carr & Giddings, 2005). And they are supposed to exists in the infinite a vast light-year away from the Earth.
The realities and knowledge about black holes, according to Hawking, are still being discussed in the conflict between relativistic reality and quantum mechanics (Polchinski, 2015). They are still, for the little known and distant, separated from our immediate cosmic reality.
Disaster risk from asteroid or comet impact
There is a low probability of impact from destructive asteroids. This is based on calculations of the applied statistical science in this type of research, which expects 3 very serious impacts every million years. When there's a chance that one of these asteroids can collide with the planet is called PHA (Potentially Hazardous Asteroid).
Of those, there are about 450 PHA; however, the risk is ruled out (Zurdo, 2004).
The scientist Jesús Martínez Frías, in the article: 'Why are meteorites important?’ he states: <<Nothing has been detected that could pose a risk to humanity, although this issue is taken into account in the research protocols that are part of the denomination "Planetary Protection">> (Very Interesting, n.d.).
Given the danger, even in very low probability, some scholars pose equations related to the dynamics of asteroids and celestial bolides, models of impact predictions and risk quantification (Trigo & Moreno, 2015).
On the other hand, Zurdo (2004) presents the different categories of impactors and the risk that they pose to the Earth:
150-meter-long impactors. Every 500 years. Energy between 100 and 1000 megatons. They would destroy an area like New York.
500-meter-long impactors. Every 15,000 years. Energy up to 10,000 megatons. It would destroy an area the size of a Spanish province.
1,000-meter-long impactors. Every million years. Energy between 10,000 and 100,000
Megatons. It would destroy an area the size of Portugal.
2,000 meter-long impactors. Millions of years. Energy of 1 million megatons. It would destroy an area the size of France and would produce storms all over the planet. These are usually calls 'Destroyers'. One of this type produced the Chicxulub crater in Yucatan -Mexico - the largest in the world.
As far as comets are concerned, they have a certain potential to endanger the planet;
some, large ones, go through unstable orbits and intersect with massive outer planets, and they can be deflected by those huge gravitational fields and make The Earth a shooting target (Ecodiario.es, 2005).
Global pandemic disaster risk
Reasons such as pollution and its globalization, the alterations in the ecosystems balances, the interaction with animals removed from their habitat to have them as Pets, the consumption of some exotic and wild species as food, the abuse of antibiotic therapies (which make virus and bacterial strains resistant and immune) and environmental actions are reasons for the outbreak of viruses that cause epidemics that the current conditions of easy mobility allow its propagation through the whole world, and, for this reason, the World Health Organization, WHO, ends declaring them pandemic.
The threat of viruses and bacteria is latent, producing deadly diseases that can end up in epidemics in certain countries or in pandemics in the global order. These viruses and bacteria have always accompanied humans, representing a constant danger that can decimate entire populations. Viruses and bacteria mutate and become resistant, according to the conditions and the environment in which they develop and survive; people can also become resistant and immune to them, and then they pass that immunity on to descending generations, just as researchers of The University of Tübingen have discovered that the DNA of the Black Plague bacteria corresponds to DNA of the current Yersinia Pestis (Turnn, 2014).
In this vein, we see that pandemics represent a looming danger to the human species, but because of health measures, prevention and scientific and technological advances reduce the possibility that they can wipe out the entire world population.
The proximity to or distance from people to transfer diseases among themselves is what makes a difference and allows for the possibilities or not of contagion, and that's where the paradox lies of the modern world: "Communications unite us and make us more and more vulnerable." (Hernández, 2014).
The hygiene conditions in which they lived in historical times such as in the Middle Ages, created a favorable environment for the generation of plagues that devastated important percentages of the population, such as the Black Death, which wiped out the third part of the European population. It’s documented by historians and writers. For example, A Journal of the Plague Year, has become an important document that recorded how this evil plague developed and spread in Europe, especially in England, where data and details, measures taken and implemented by political-administrative entities in order to prevent and stop the spread of it (Defoe, 1985).
Giovanni Boccaccio, visits Florence during the years of the plague in 1348, and vividly narrates the daily scenes: "This plague took on great force; the sick transmitted it to the
healthy by relating to them, as occurs with fire close to dry branches." (Boccaccio, 1993: 48).
Albert Camus, similarly, wrote an important work, The Plague, in which several series of dialogs are interwoven and enunciated indicating, reflections and descriptions about the plague, whose scenario is Oran, a port located in the French colony of Algeria. The novel is a testimony to the uncertainty, loneliness, worry, despair, isolation, solidarity, in the middle of the Black Plague affliction that is being experienced (Camus, 1984).
Now, in the society of technology and many scientific achievements, epidemic diseases are reduced and contained more quickly, with the provision of a series of health measures, agreements among multilateral agencies and individual governments, and although these epidemic diseases do pose a threat in some ways, they do not succeed in jeopardizing the existence of the human species.
The scourge of the various pandemics that have occurred in succession, one after the other, have left lessons well learned by experts in international health and safety, including the exact knowledge over the pillars which the fight against the pandemics must be based : prevention, detection and response (Hidalgo, 2014).
The pandemics that are emerging have neither compromised the human species nor do they present high levels of mortality. Of course, many of these have spread rapidly and have had a great impact on the health of the population though (Martínez, 2016).
On the other hand, there is also concern about biological terrorism, especially the extremist position that some radical groups may make an attack using anthrax, or other bacterial attacks on Western society (Hernández, 2014). That could mean the death of thousands of people due to bioterrorist attacks in massive transport systems or crowded places, and the consequent outbreak of contagion.
The Coronavirus, (Covid-19), the most recent of the world pandemics, has set off all the alarms and it is affecting humanity in a frontal manner in its administrative political institutions that regulate the social order, thereby altering the normalcy of societies, which is already presently seen as an unprecedented case in human history.
In that order, the declaration of a coronavirus pandemic by the WHO, impacted the world’s economy. Fear was behind the dramatic falls in the most important world’s stock markets of the world for weeks, and it was in double digits. Also, according to the Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD, there will be a slowdown in the economy to the end of 2020 and global growth is expected to fall from 2.9 to 2.4 (El Mundo.es, 2020).
The impact of the virus has also had an impact on the cancellation of activities and events in the business, academic, sports and border closure areas in all countries of the world, as prevention, in order to avoid the virus from entering or increasing reported cases within their territories (Dinero.com, 2020).
On the other hand, critical voices have emerged from the alarms and measures of the various governments for the prevention of coronavirus, which point to aspects such as sophisms of distraction from powerful rulers so that the subjects do not focus their attention on scandals and other matters that would affect them; they also differ from the excessive measures assumed and the forgetfulness of diseases that leave very high numbers of deaths in comparison with those left behind by the Covid-19 pandemic (Caparrós, 2020).
Despite criticism and different positions of some opinion journalists on the determinations that some governments were taking with respect to the pandemic, the growth of the epidemiological situation in all the countries, showed the seriousness of the matter and many countries then decide to opt for strict measures to prevent the spread of the virus, in addition it was clear, by its measures, that their actions were consistent with their words and the vision with which the consequences of the crisis were appreciated. German chancellor Angela Merkel, warned that the coronavirus was the biggest challenge her country faced since the Second World War (Infobae, 2020).
The Covid-19 pandemic, unlike previous pandemics, is much more dangerous; it even brought something unpublished: the extra bonus of putting the world order in check- and it may be because despite what had been learned from previous pandemic outbreaks to isolate the cases with determination and without hesitation to cut the transmission, many governments did not do so immediately when they detected the first cases.
China, demonstrated with the management of the situation in Wuhan, origin of the virus, and epicenter of it, in principle, that it was able to stop the spread and prevented the whole country from being scourged, plagued and devastated by contagion; however, the Chinese government has been heavily criticized for data concealment and reduction of infection and death figures.
That determination of China, which was lacking in other countries, created a situation that with the passage of the days, increased positive cases of the virus, and easily created the daily news that was a general alarm that affected all areas and sectors of the life of the nations, and sowed fears and terrors, never before seen. Indeed, the virus is still a hidden enemy about which little is known and whose behavior could not be foreseen. Already, by the knowledge of its genome, medical science, in China, Germany, The U.S. and other countries are working around the clock to find the vaccine.
Well, as far as the scourge of Covid-19 is concerned, we must always remember that the
fears and terrors for the biosecurity of the species and for the feeling of clinging to life takes place cyclically, which gives us reasons to not underestimate the danger they pose.
Risk of catastrophe from nuclear war
In the 1960s, the United Nations called on all countries of the world to unite inspection and control efforts, by virtue of which many countries that produce nuclear weapons would refrain from relinquishing control of such weapons and the countries that do not possess such weapons would refrain from manufacturing them. The same thing that happened shortly afterwards, the signing of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), whose the objective is to prevent an increase in the number of countries possessing nuclear weapons and ensure that those who do not have them have access to all applications of a of atomic energies. So, from that treaty, systems were created aimed at ensuring that materials intended for peaceful purposes are not diverted to military purposes (NPT, 1968).
Military expert Mijaíl Jodariónok, states that the use of weapons of mass destruction would have catastrophic consequences, not only for the belligerent nations, but for all the countries of the world. Also, in an article published by the Vice President of the Center of Strategic and International Studies in Washington, James Andrew Lewis, says
with the advent of nuclear weapons, the major world powers have sought to avoid direct military confrontation (RT, 2018).
The analysis of the previous article and the statements in reference to it, it’s motivated by the continuous friction between the major armed powers and supported by the results of a survey of members of the United States armed forces, those who feared a large-scale conflict. It should not be forgotten that the expiry of the missile treaty occurred particularly in that year.
Indeed, in February 2019, Moscow and Washington announced the suspension of their
Commitments to the Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-range and Minor-range Missiles (INF), and the two countries, Russia and the USA, accused each other of not complying with their respective obligations. According to expert analysis, these positions are assumed particularly to validate not a quantitative increase, but the qualitative improvement of the nuclear arsenal (Foreign Affairs, 2019).
In The repeating island, by Antonio Benítez Rojo, he argues that if the missile crisis had been produced in Europe (in Berlin, he writes) and not in Havana, "the children of the world perhaps would have been learning now to make fire rubbing sticks." He concluded that because of the culture of the Caribbean, which has a certain idiosyncrasy, in its own way of being, that apocalypse would not have been possible. He saw troop movements, verified reports from official bulletins, observed the evacuation of children in his neighborhood and noticed the chatter of two old women and, - "I knew at once"-, he points out, and stated, that Havana would not light the fuse of the apocalypse (Benítez, 1998).
On the other hand, on the 70th anniversary of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki,
the President of the International Committee of the Red Cross, ICRC, Peter Maurer, at The diplomatic community in Geneva said: "These events left an indelible mark in the conscience and memory of humanity", and he also pointed out the cost catastrophic and long-lasting use of nuclear weapons (ICRC, 2015).
Because of the use of nuclear weapons can only mean the disappearance of virtually all mankind from the face of the earth, we believe and bet that man will not return to make use of them.
Disaster risk from supervolcano eruption
If there was an eruption of one of the super volcanoes that now are dormant or are at a certain level of activity, like the Anao Krakatoa, there would be a global catastrophe, because it would affect the climate, agriculture, would produce famines and wars for food, even. It could happen. There is a very low possibility, but it is latent (Papadopoulos, 2008).
The force associated with a supervolcano eruption would be equivalent to the impact of an asteroid against the planet; the only difference is that the phenomena of the volcanic eruptions of this type occur about ten times more often than the impact of an asteroid would. (Bindeman, 2006).
Some of the supervolcanoes are invisible, because they have a flat structure, consisting of a very large boiler, and only becomes visible when the magma chamber collapses (Astronoo, 1997).
These invisible supervolcanoes are known as “Calderas”, one of them is Campi Flegrei or Phlegrean fields, with 13 kilometers wide, in a bay near of Naples. The hills of Sorrento were formed by its eruption about 35 thousand years ago (Beecomer, 2018).
Among the most destructive super volcanoes in the world are the Yellowstone, in America, which hasn't had an eruption in 640,000 years. There's also Mount Rainier that is a potential killer. In Italy, Vesuvius, which buried the ancient city of Pompeii in 79 A.D.; The Phlegraean Fields, in a bay near Naples, if there were an eruption there, millions of people would die, and the ashes would invade all of Europe and produce a severe climate change, and the consequences of which, would last for decades; there is also the Stromboli, an island, whose summit is a large volcano submerged in the Tyrrhenian sea. In Japan, there is Mount Sama, one of the most active volcanoes, 144 kilometers from Tokyo; in Colombia there is the Nevado del Ruiz, which had one of the deadliest eruptions in history. It swallowed 29,000 inhabitants who lived in its vicinity (Markowitz, 2011).
There's also the Wah Wah Springs, about 30 times bigger than the Yellowstone. Its last eruption was about 30 million years ago. Researchers at Brigham Young University only discovered it in 2013. According to scientist Ron Smith, the Wah Wah could erupt in 500,000 years, but it could also be in a week (Sputnik World, 2020).
Risk of disaster due to the imbalance of the earth's axis
The planet is clearly a stable balanced system, because of the equilibrium among its proportions: continental masses, oceanic water masses, glacial and polar ice masses.
In fact, the scales are the instruments designed to balance the force of gravity that acts on the mass of a body, according to the definition of the University of Grenada.
Similarly, the institution defines the term balance as: establishing the same position of an indicator or a faithful, before and after placing, in their respective places, the body and the reference mass or weight used.
Then, after the fortuitous fact of nature of balancing its weights on earth, the marvelous equilibrium occurs, which is ‘the state in which the total of forces acting on a body, or structure, add up to zero.'
If we perform, in a mental experiment, the visualization of the planet as it is, and We place it in a different scenario, where its water bodies move with a certain pressure to one side, nothing will happen but a wobble from the swaying of one side of the scale.
Consequently, when the melting of the glaciers, and especially of the North Pole, occurs, the mass of water from this melt that flows to other centers of gravity than the one currently in equilibrium, must lead to axial disturbance, and consequently, the tilting of the globe.
Chart No 2.
The Earth, a Balance Scale
Source: Own Design
Global warming and polar caps melting data and alarm. Point of no return
In the interest of environmental protection, the United Nations created a series of conventions and measures to prevent further damage to the atmosphere and thus mitigate climate change: among them, the incentive to generate clean energy, afforestation and reforestation, reduction of greenhouse gases, allocation of emission quantities to all countries (Kyoto Protocol, 1998).
Not all countries signed, and those that did sign have not fully complied with the agreed conditions, and all that action becomes just harmless attempts to solve a problem of enormous consequences for the security of life and the permanence of the species in the planet.
Also, in 2015, an agreement of nations was signed in Paris to combat climate change, control of carbon emissions, to accelerate and intensify actions and investments for sustainable development and to keep temperatures below 1.5 ºC in this century, among other aspects (Paris Agreement, 2015).
Within its vision and commitment, the United Nations says that the greatest challenge of our time is climate change. It also expresses how fatal the human footprint in the Generation of Greenhouse Gases (GHGS) has been. We all know that is a natural process, but after more than a century and a half of industrialization, deforestation and large-scale agriculture the amounts of gases in the atmosphere has increased on the planet, to levels never seen before in 3 million years (United Nations. Climate Change, 2020).
Even scientists do not have a crystal clear picture of what would happen if the entire ice sheet of the glaciers and polar ice caps were to be lost. They do not yet specify the dire consequences for civilization; however, they are engaged in studies for the understanding of this phenomenon. We present some of these relevant studies.
There are a number of changes, alterations, fusions and collapses of glaciers, and irreparable damages, in general, in the cryosphere. Likewise, there have been changes in the oceans. Researchers confirms, that for the preparation of the report, more than 100 authors from 36 countries evaluated the latest scientific literature on oceans and cryosphere in a changing world, and have cited approximately 7000 scientific publications. For its relevance and gravity, we allude to these points. Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, IPCC (2019):
—Melting glaciers and ice sheets cause sea level increase, and extreme coastal events are becoming increasingly violent.
—The world's oceans and the cryosphere have absorbed heat from climate change for decades, and now the consequences for nature and mankind are serious.
—Glaciers, snow, ice and permafrost are diminishing and will continue to diminish, according to the projections, it will translate dangers for people, for example, in phenomena such as landslides, avalanches, rock fallings and floods.
—Loss of up to 80% of minor glacier masses in Europe, East Africa, the tropical Andes and Indonesia will be a fact of life by 2100.
—Forest fires will disrupt ecosystems in most boreal regions and the tundra, as well as in the mountain areas.
One of the strongest United Nations reports on environmental damage and the subsequent climate change, is undoubtedly, the Nairobi Report. The warnings are clear and reveal a terrible picture.
The UN, in the Nairobi Report, categorically dates the end of mankind: 30 years. It's a catastrophic assessment, but it's sincere and accurate. It indicates that everything will be possible due to the extinction of the Arctic ice, desertification will become extensive, temperatures will become high and irresistible and there will be a lot of death due to poor air quality. The multilateral body assures that the more pollution, more population and even less awareness, the sooner the waste would be. 250 specialists from different branches of science and knowledge from 70 countries came to this alarming conclusion. (Cultura Colectiva, 2019).
Of course, this is historical information because of its breadth and conclusions, with no positive data for the future of the planet. Since the first UN report on the subject, in 1997, it has become clear that the necessary conditions are not met in the objectives set for 2030 and 2050, for the mitigation of the phenomenon and of the inherent damages (Aquae Foundation, 2019).
Also, a number of scientists are trying to do simulations and studies in laboratories, to recreate different scenarios of global warming, the melting of the glaciers and try to understand the phenomena and their effects on the environment consequences for life on the planet.
Meanwhile, for these scientists there are numerous sources of uncertainty in predicting the worst case scenario, including factors such as the speed with which the seas will rise, related to the rapidity with which the ice sheets covering Greenland and Antarctica slide, and see that the future is uncertain, but that they need to prepare for change (Gramling, 2020).
In the same vein, according to a new expert study, it is revealed that the loss of the ice mass happens without precedent, at a rate of 30% of the surface layer from the beginning of the 20th century. This study points out that the contribution of 60% of the water that rising sea level, comes from the melting of the Arctic surface layer, which makes its way through the currents that reach the ocean. Similarly, it states that the alarming conclusions derive from observations of polar ice cores and a coastal ice cap from different areas more than 1800 meters above sea level. Drilling was carried out during various expeditions in 2003, 2014 and 2015.
The study is significant because it combines measurements of ice sheet changes on the surface of Greenland with simulations of independent computer models, and both lines show that the thaw in recent decades is unprecedented in the last 330 years (Rodríguez, 2019).
One of the main functions of the polar territories is the reflection of solar radiation, act as a global temperature refrigerant, this moderating action is distributed by the ocean currents. The reduction of the ice-covered areas of the Polar Regions has serious local and global implications, since they reflect 90% of solar radiation; liquid water surfaces only reflect 10%. That phenomenon is called albedo. According to the United Nations Programme for Environment (UNEP), the region is undergoing a profound transformation by the interaction of the forces of climate change and harmful human activities. In a nutshell, as indicated by international organizations, the most alarming is the melting of the poles (Maillier, 2017).
It is true and normal that within the field of science, in research there are discrepancies and different positions, which enter into debate; but, apart from this, the data are sometimes meaningful and alarming and allow only the worst-case scenarios possible. In this article that we mention, there is a comparison of the different types of research that show alarming data and other research studies that do not show the same results.
As far as we're concerned, we highlight the data recorded in the text, which are worrying and underpin our position: "One of the most drastic anthropogenic consequences of climate change is the melting of the glacier masses present in Greenland and Antarctica, which will lead a global rise in ocean levels. These are highly significant ice reserves, whose melting rate has increased especially in recent decades”. (Dottori, 2019).
At the same time, and despite the great evidence of the consequences of the damage to the environment, to the melting of the glaciers, some researchers raise their negative opinions and skepticism about the subject, such as the publication of an article in the Russian daily Novaya Gazeta, signed by Yulia Latynina, which subtitles: "The story of the greatest scientific falsification in history." However, the N+1 medium requested to the principal research scientist of the Climate Theory Laboratory of the Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Alexander Chernokulsky, to comment on the publication. Among his considerations, we highlight the following: that the first estimates of heat balance on the surface were made by Mikhail Ivanovich Budyko, in 1956, and today with long-term satellite and terrestrial observations, the global averaged radiation and heat flow values we have been able to establish the Earth’s climate system.
That the monitoring of atmospheric carbon dioxide has also been carried out, since it was done in 1956 in Mauna Loa, Hawaii. There has been a significant increase in carbon dioxide concentration over time. Which has been verified on the basis of the analysis of air bubbles in the glacier cores of Antarctica, whose measurements made it possible to establish that in the last millions of years, the concentration of CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere has never been so high. It also states that, through technology, it is possible to determine accurately and through different methods estimates of anthropogenic flow generated by industry, agriculture, energy and other factors. Finally, he points out that global climate change is happening before our eyes, and that economic activity accelerates and deepens these phenomena, which are not the invention of climatologists (Chernokulski, 2020).
And to conclude with the quotations on climate change and glacier melting, we want to refer to the following research, which warns about Arctic melting being faster than in Antarctica.
In their work, the authors of "Thawing in the Arctic and Antarctica", indicate as conclusive points, that any variation in ambient temperature entails an immediate response in the glacier discharge (there is a direct relation), and that at the same latitude in both hemispheres, the glacier discharge is 3.5 times greater in the Arctic than in Antarctica (Herazo & Dominguez, n.d.).
Data analysis, predictions, and results
From the different possibilities, one of the ruptures of the equilibrium of the earth's axis was the one we give the highest percentage, and not in a random, but by analysis that led us to the certainty that it will happen. Here is our predictive model.
Due to the increase in water masses as a result of the melting of glaciers and the North Pole, we anticipate that the axis of the globe will be altered, according to what is known the 23, 5° of inclination. We also sense that this inclination is already taking place since the beginning of 2019, and that by the end of 2020, the tilt will be about 3°, and it will continue happening, in biannual periods, until the year of 2052, when it will reach the critical point -74.5°-where, by such inclination and by an imbalance between the masses of the continents, the oceans, the ice cap of the South Pole and by the lack of the ice cap of the North Pole (which will disappear completely by the thaw), and whose absence would mean the lack of a natural counterweight in the existing equilibrium, and a pressure that destabilizes the planet will be exerted, inexorably, and finally, in this event, Earth will lose its axial equilibrium and experience a tilt in its globe structure.
Biannual tilt of the Earth’s axis which is, according to what is known, at 23.5º
We anticipate, as a consequence of the irreversible damage that the planet Earth is now experiencing (we refer to the pre-eminent factor of the thaw), a progression in the inclination of the Earth’s axis, which will be as shown in the chart and diagrams.
Biannual tilt of the Earth's axis
Tilt of the Earth's axis
the normal axis tilt was (23.5°)
3° of inclination adding up (26.5°)
3° of inclination adding up (29.5°)
3° of inclination adding up (32.5°)
3° of inclination adding up (35.5°)
3° of inclination adding up (38.5°)
3° of inclination adding up (41.5°)
3° of inclination adding up (44.5°)
3° of inclination adding up (47.5°)
3° of inclination adding up (50.5°)
3° of inclination adding up (53.5°)
3° of inclination adding up (56.5°)
3° of inclination adding up (59.5°)
3° of inclination adding up (62.5°)
3° of inclination adding up (65.5°)
3° of inclination adding up (68.5°)
3° of inclination adding up (71.5°)
3° of inclination adding up (74.5°)
Critical point – tilting effect. The End.
Chart No 3
Progression of the Earth's axis tilt 2018-2052
Source: own design
Chart No. 4
Biannual tilt of the Earth's axis until the year 2052
Source: own design.
—Up until 2018, the inclination of the axis was 23.5°.
—We foresee a progressive slope of 3° every two years
—The critical point is 74.5°, in the year 2052.
Events and consequences on the planet after the axial equilibrium break
After the rupture of the axial balance of the globe, which we place in the 74.5º incline, a series of specific events implicit in the catastrophe will happen, such as the fracture of the islands in the various seas and oceans by the small thickness of their pillars. Among these events, in general, we note the following:
—A Wobble of the ocean waters of the Arctic, Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian with pressure towards the southwest of the globe. Creating Mega-tsunamis.
—Island and archipelagos will be adrift on the planet's geography. In the glacial Arctic ocean: Victoria, Bafin, Queen Elizabeth Islands, Greenland, Iceland, Spitzberg Islands north, San Francisco Jose Land, New Zambia, Northern Land, New Siberian Islands.
—Islands and Archipelagos will be sent adrift: The Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, New Guinea, The Solomon Islands, Fiji Islands, Kiribati, New Zealand.
—Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean islands will be adrift.
—Much of the current landmass will be immersed by seismic movements.
—Pendulum effect of the globe will continue until it becomes stable again.
—The planet after becoming stable, after the rolling, the Antarctic region would be located in the northern part and the continental masses will be crowded and in opposite position as they were; that is, upside down.
—The new North Pole would be left with a westward tilt of 336.5, contrary to what it is now, and would aim its axis, no longer at the North Star, but at the star Vega.
—constant seismic and volcanic activity.
Chart No. 5.
Source: Own Design
It's too late for mankind:
Preservation of the seed. Challenge, and purpose for not disappearing; The Ark.
The scientific community has long considered the possibility of evacuating the planet for different reasons:
For the excess population, for lack of resources to avoid a food crisis, for lack of the most precious liquid such as water (economists already postulate in their forecasts that future wars will be for the possession of water).
Stephen Hawking, at a conference at Oxford University, said that man should begin to look for ways to evacuate the planet and invited the big companies to see as urgent the investment in the construction of spaceships capable of flying to great distances and reaching other planets.
The great scientist calculates a time of one hundred years. So, dramatically, man needs to preserve the seed of humanity in a short time. His foresight is related to the abruptness that is being experienced in climate change. He further stated that the government measures in the various countries have been insufficient to rescue nature. (Sputnik World, 2016).
Similarly, while looking at the possibility of risk somewhat distant, Kaku (2019) states: "But if we look to the distant future, sooner or later we will face a disaster so big that adaptation will be almost impossible. We will have to leave the Earth or perish. There is no other option" (p.13).
Also, this approach of the scientific community to the possible exit of the planet to preserve the seed is reflected in the documentary Evacuate Earth, in which several personalities from the scientific world elucidate on the subject. The way the man would leave the planet would be a ship, which in the documentary is curiously called The Ark (National Geographic, 2011).
Similarly, film fiction recreates in various films the catastrophes that could put an end to civilization for different reasons, among which we highlight: "10.5: Apocalypse (2006), John Lafia; "Terminator II: Judgment Day” (1991), James Cammeron; "Independence Day" (1996), Roland Emmerich; "Armageddon" (1998), Michael Bay; "The Day After Tomorrow" (2004), Roland Emmerich; "Children of Men" (2006), Alfonso Cuarón; "28 Days Later" (2002), Dany Boyle; "I am" (2007), Francis Lawrence; Mad Max: Fury road (2015), George Miller; "PANDORUM" (2009), Christian Alvart; "The Book of Elí" (2010), Albert Hughes and Allen Hughes; "2012: The World’s End" (2009), Roland Emmerich; "Deep impact" (1998), Miriam Leder.
Without a doubt, with an eventual and unfortunate catastrophe for humanity, all these films can be a futuristic vision of our final destiny.
We also think that the scientific projects around the idea of surviving a fatal and imminent catastrophe, or destruction of the Earth, that will make humankind and their history disappear from the universe, the aspiration of colonization of exoplanets after terraforming them, are unsustainable. The approaches that project the future of humanity are being pre-thought for many years. However, the collapse of the planet is imminent and there will not be time to realize those projects. They’re too big. Several possibilities are proposed, including terraforming Mars for colonization (Kaku, 2019).
It should be noted that if human beings, generation after generation, had been aware that we owed ourselves to our planet and had taken care of it, we would not need to leave it or evacuate it; at least, not with the urgency with which this is now being considered, but within highly analyzed and well -thought plans. If natural conditions had imposed it on us for one reason or another, and so, timely and forward in the future, anything would be possible.
Finally, we have to ask some questions. What would be the real way in which human beings can guarantee ourselves the salvation of a catastrophe of such magnitude that will destroy life on the planet? What will be the cost, the sacrifices? Time is short and it is up to the scientists to deliberate. Many questions arise in the face of such a huge and far-reaching problem.
The results and analysis of our research has led us to some conclusions.
The first responds to the research question that if our life on the planet is at risk and the answer is yes. We know the risk is imminent due to the speed of the thaw and the resulting inclination of the earth's axis, which constitutes the thesis of this work. The second is that we believe that in the past two years, scientists have not been monitoring if the value of the tilt of the earth's axis has changed and it is still maintained in the 23.5°, or if on the contrary it has changed.
This observation is important, because it is possible that from the year 2018 and back, melting will not determine the tilt of the earth's axis, and after that date, the phenomenon has continued. The third is that from the resulting axial inclination, a series of cataclysmic events will eventually occur.
The authors of the study invite the scientific community to carry out their own research based on our predictive model, data and analysis that we propose. Simulations of the tilt of the earth be carried out in their laboratories, and verify the current tilt of Earth's axis.
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 Journalist, writer and University professor. Undergraduate studies at the University of Cartagena in Linguistics and Literature. PhD student at the University of Salamanca in Spanish Literature and Spanish-American. Natural Science Studies (self-taught training).
 Doctor and Surgeon from the Metropolitan University of Barranquilla. Degree in Biological Medicine and Homotoxicology at the University of Cartagena. Degree in Complementary Medicine. Natural Science Studies (self-taught training).
 Technical concept of scales. Website of the University of Grenada. http://www.ugr.es/~museojtg/instrumento10/ficha_fundamentos2.htm
 Definition of the word balance. Website of the University of Grenada. http://www.ugr.es/~museojtg/instrumento10/ficha_fundamentos2.htm